The future of Southern California is playing out right now, in ways large and small, along a narrow stretch of beach and bluffs in south Orange County. In a nearly straight line that runs from Dana Point to the southern end of San Clemente, a key piece of the Los Angeles-San Diego-San Luis Obispo Rail Corridor (LOSSAN, for short) sits at the center of important discussions about everything from climate change and disappearing beaches to local jurisdictions, the future of California rail and even the 2028 Olympics.
Coastal erosion and rising sea levels are wreaking havoc on the linchpin rail line, which directs both commuter and commercial traffic from Los Angeles and all points north to the 3.2 million people in San Diego County. It’s the second-busiest intercity passenger rail line in America, servicing local riders via Metrolink and Amtrak’s famous Pacific Surfliner route, and is a key pinch point for overland goods that come to the United States by ship. Even the military relies on this stretch of track to move human and machine from Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton to the rest of the country.
The problem is the line keeps getting knocked out of service, often by bluff collapse that drops debris on the tracks or, increasingly, by high-tide washouts and the enduring destabilization that comes with a rapidly changing world. Since its inception, the line has been hit with various maladies, including a 1933 closure when a 200-foot chunk of cliffside fell onto the track, just months after the devastating Long Beach earthquake. More recently, in early 2024, the line was closed entirely following a landslide; but before workers could solve that problem, another slide occurred nearby. In all, the line was unusable for two months until catchment work could be completed that would help keep falling debris off the tracks.
Further erosion in 2025 closed the line again, despite routine work to shore up unstable cliffsides and replenish sand at the beach. Such closures could become even more routine, as Orange County officials project rising sea levels of between 1.3 and 1.7 feet by 2055 — enough to wipe out 13 to 17 feet of current beach, creeping even low-tide waves closer to the rail line…