CLEVELAND — A storm system later this week could bring Ohio its first snow of the season, especially in the northeast part of the state. Forecast models have been bouncing between two very different scenarios. The difference comes down to something called phasing, and its timing could change everything. Right now, the stronger storm scenario is slightly favored.
Why the Forecast Is So Tricky
A piece of energy is expected to dive south out of Canada. At the same time, a mid-level trough will dig into the Ohio Valley. The big question is whether these two features phase, or combine, and how quickly that happens.
If they combine early, the storm could become stronger and track farther north. If they combine late or not at all, the storm would be weaker and stay farther south. That small difference could mean a cold rain or a much more wintry storm.
Scenario One: Stronger Storm, Bigger Impacts
In the first scenario, earlier phasing leads to a stronger storm with a more northern track. A round of rain would move through from Wednesday night into Thursday morning. From Thursday night into Friday afternoon, a strengthening storm could bring more rain, gusty winds, and a change to a wintry mix.
From Friday afternoon into Saturday, lake-effect precipitation could develop over Northeast Ohio. That could bring a mix of rain, sleet, graupel, and snow. Some higher-elevation communities could see minor accumulation if temperatures and precipitation line up.
Scenario Two: Weaker System, Fewer Impacts
In the second scenario, the energy phases later or not at all. The storm would take a more southern track, bringing much less impact to the region. Only scattered rain showers would be expected instead of widespread precipitation…