CLEVELAND — A dynamic storm system could bring accumulating snow to parts of northern Ohio by the end of the week. Confidence is growing that some areas could see their first accumulating snowfall of the season on Friday. This is not a major winter storm, but the setup is impressive and has a lot going on. The best chance for snow will come as lake-effect bands develop off Lake Erie Friday into Friday night.
Phasing Will Drive the Storm
A piece of energy diving southeast out of the Pacific Northwest and Canada is expected to interact with a deepening trough over the Ohio Valley. Forecast models increasingly suggest these two features could phase, or combine their energy. The timing of that phasing looks favorable near the region. That could allow low pressure to strengthen rapidly as it moves through.
When a storm strengthens quickly, several things happen at once. Precipitation can become heavier, winds can increase, and colder air can be pulled into the system. That is what makes this setup so interesting for Ohio. It also explains why the weather will change so much from Wednesday night to Friday night.
Rain and Gusty Winds Wednesday Night Into Thursday
The storm will begin with rain from Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Widespread rain is expected across much of the state, including Cleveland, Canton, Mansfield, Columbus, Lima, Dayton, and Cambridge. Areas farther northwest near Toledo and Defiance may see more scattered rain. Winds could gust up to 30 mph as low pressure moves into the region.
The rain could make for a wet and messy commute on Thursday morning. Fallen leaves on roads and in storm drains may cause slick spots and minor ponding. Drivers should slow down and use headlights in heavier rain. Loose outdoor items may also need to be secured because of the gusty winds.
Wintry Mix Develops Thursday Afternoon
From Thursday afternoon into Friday morning, things become more interesting as the low strengthens near the region. Colder air will begin wrapping around the back side of the system. That could allow rain to mix with sleet, graupel, and even snow in some locations. The changeover is expected to happen gradually, starting in areas where temperatures drop fastest…