Nearly the entire East Coast is at risk of seeing severe thunderstorms today into early Friday morning. The threat stretches from northern Florida into southern New England. The ingredients for strong to severe thunderstorms are in place.
A marginal risk for the Capital Region through early Friday
Nearly 86 million people across portions of at least 19 eastern states are at a marginal risk, level one out of five, for severe thunderstorms today into early Friday, according to the Storm Prediction Center, or SPC. An unsettled weather pattern will culminate late today and tonight, eventually clearing way for several days of delightful September weather. The transition could be a bit bumpy.
A cold front will be sweeping through the East Coast and out into the Atlantic today through early tomorrow. The cooler air behind the front will act like a wedge, driving the relatively warm, moist and unstable air ahead of it upward. Temperatures aloft will also be cooling, creating additional instability. Another ingredient will be wind shear, a change in wind direction and speed with height vertically through the atmosphere.
The SPC is our country’s first line of defense for severe thunderstorms. The SPC issues daily “convective outlooks” that identify portions of the country that will be at risk of experiencing severe thunderstorms. In order for a thunderstorm to be classified as severe, it has to produce one of the following: 1-inch diameter hail or larger, winds equal to or stronger than 58 miles per hour, or a tornado. Of all the possible hazards that a severe thunderstorm could bring today and tonight, damaging winds are the most likely.
A summary of 2025’s severe thunderstorms so far
This year has been relatively quiet for severe thunderstorms to this point. The National Weather Service in Albany’s preliminary count of severe thunderstorm warnings it has issued is 71. If no other severe thunderstorm warnings were to come this year, that would be the fewest number of warnings issued since 2003, and the fourth fewest in the past 30 years.
Statewide, there have been 311 severe thunderstorm warnings issued for New York this year as of Wednesday. That is the fewest for the state since 2018. In the past 40 years, the largest number of warnings issued was 745 in 2008, and the fewest for an entire year was 76 in 1987.
Since the last week of August, the majority of severe thunderstorm warnings have targeted western New York, particularly in and around the Syracuse area. Our dry pattern limited the warnings in this area. There has only been rain reported on just five of the past 28 days in Albany. The rain that fell on Tuesday was preceded by 16 straight dry days.
A wonderful weekend ahead
Rain chances will shut down after early Friday morning as a dry, stable air mass moves in. Some spectacular September weather is on the way for most of Friday and this weekend. Skies will clear at least partially on Friday, followed by more sunshine on Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures should climb above average tomorrow and stay there for the next several days. Cooler air arrives by the middle of next week, when it should actually feel like fall for a change.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two disturbances in the western Atlantic for potential tropical cyclone development. They remain well southeast of the Mid-Atlantic for now, but will have to be watched for potential impacts along the East Coast by the middle of next week.
The Capital Region and Hudson Valley’s week ahead
Thursday
Capital Region: Mostly cloudy, showers and thunderstorms, some strong thunderstorms possible, high in the lower 70sHudson Valley: Cloudy, showers likely, scattered thunderstorms, some possibly strong, high in the mid-70s
Thursday night
Capital Region: Cloudy, scattered showers and a possible thunderstorm, low in the lower 60sHudson Valley: Cloudy, scattered showers and thunderstorms, low in the mid-60s
Friday
Capital Region: Shower possible early, partial clearing in the evening, high in the upper 70sHudson Valley: Morning shower possible, then becoming mostly sunny, high near 80
Friday night
Capital Region: Partly cloudy, cool, low in the mid-50sHudson Valley: Mainly clear, low in the mid-50s
Saturday
Capital Region: Partly to mostly sunny, high in the upper 70sHudson Valley: Cloud and sun mix, high in the upper 70s
Sunday
Capital Region: Mostly sunny, high in the upper 70sHudson Valley: Partly to mostly sunny, high near 80
Monday
Capital Region: Mostly sunny, high near 80Hudson Valley: Partly to mostly sunny, high in the upper 70s
Tuesday
Capital Region: Mostly sunny, high in the middle to upper 70sHudson Valley: Partly to mostly sunny, high in the lower 70s
Wednesday
Capital Region: Mostly sunny, cooler, high in the middle to upper 60sHudson Valley: Mostly sunny, cooler, high in the upper 60s…