The first nor’easter of fall is expected to form this weekend, with impacts coming for the Capital Region. It should whip up gusty winds and keep our cool pattern coming into the middle of next week. The ingredients for the storm are moving into place on the anniversary of one of the nastiest storms to ever hit the Northeast.
The great snow hurricane of 1804
An unprecedented early-season snowstorm hit New England hard 221 years ago today. Dubbed the “Great Snow Hurricane,” this powerful storm generated winds of 110 mph. The first tropical cyclone on record to produce snow, it swept ships onshore, capsized several others, and battered wharves along the coast of New England.
The estimated track of the historic storm shows the center came close to the Capital Region. Heavy snow fell from eastern New York to southern Canada. New England bore the brunt of the storm’s wrath as it wrapped cold air into it, squeezing out nearly four feet of snow in Windsor, Vermont.
“The storm devastated shipping, froze potatoes, destroyed orchards, crushed houses, killed dozens of people, leveled timber lots, smashed wharves and took the steeple off the Old North Church in Boston,” according to the New England Historical Society.
Nor’easter brewing this weekend
Based on computer models, the storm that will come together along the Mid-Atlantic coast this weekend meets the criteria of a nor’easter. The strongest storms of this type tend to form between September and April, somewhere between Georgia and New Jersey, usually within 100 miles or so east or west of the East Coast. These extratropical storms produce driving northeast winds that can whip up large waves, causing coastal flooding and erosion.
The Global Forecast System model has a strong low located near New Jersey by Monday morning. Heavy rain is expected from eastern North Carolina northward into the coast of Maine. “In addition to heavy rain threats, the combination of persistent and strong onshore winds, high surf, and above normal tides may lead to significant coastal flooding impacts along with strong rip currents and potential beach erosion,” according to the Weather Prediction Center, or WPC.
The WPC has outlined portions of at least a dozen states for a marginal to slight risk, levels one and two out of four, respectively, of excessive rainfall capable of producing flash flooding Sunday into early Monday morning. The Capital Region is on the northern fringe of the marginal risk area. Even subtle changes in the intensity or track of this system could have a big influence on how much rain will fall here.
Live: Real-time weather across New York.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model is predicting between a quarter of an inch and almost two inches of rain in eastern New York, with heavier rainfall expected closer to the coast.
The storm has the potential to produce tropical storm strength wind gusts in parts of the East Coast. Some models are suggesting gusts over 50 mph on Long Island. Gusts in the Capital Region and Hudson Valley could range between 25 and nearly 40 mph. The track and intensity of this storm are not set in stone. It will only take slight fluctuations in either to significantly change the storm’s impacts on New York and the rest of the Northeast.
Typical fall temperatures to hang around
One thing that does seem certain is that more typical fall temperatures should stick around through all of next week. The northeast winds rotating around the north end of the storm will help to sweep cooler air in this weekend into early next week. As the storm departs, moving out into the Atlantic from Tuesday to Wednesday, a reinforcing shot of cool, crisp Canadian air will surge southward behind it, sending a cold front as far south as Florida by Thursday.
An extended streak of near-normal temperatures is expected to stretch from this weekend through next week and on into the following weekend. Highs should be between a degree or two above average to a couple of degrees below average.
The Capital Region and Hudson Valley’s week ahead
Friday
Capital Region: Frosty start, then sunny skies, high in the lower to mid-60sHudson Valley: Morning frost, sunny and cool, highs in the mid-60s
Friday night
Capital Region: Mainly clear, low in the upper 30sHudson Valley: Mainly clear, low near 40
Saturday
Capital Region: Sunny skies, high in the mid-60sHudson Valley: Mostly sunny, high in the mid- to upper 60s
Saturday night
Capital Region: Partly cloudy, a few showers possible late, low in the mid-40sHudson Valley: Mostly cloudy, scattered showers late, low in the middle to upper 40s
Sunday
Capital Region: Mostly cloudy, becoming breezy, scattered showers, high in the lower 60sHudson Valley: Mostly cloudy, becoming breezy, scattered showers, high in the lower 60s
Monday
Capital Region: Showers mainly early, mostly cloudy, breezy, high near 60.Hudson Valley: On and off showers, mostly cloudy, breezy, high near 60.
Tuesday
Capital Region: Partly to mostly sunny, high in the mid-60sHudson Valley: Cloud and sun mix, high in the mid-60s
Wednesday
Capital Region: Mostly sunny, high in the mid-60sHudson Valley: Mostly sunny, high in the mid-60s
Thursday
Capital Region: Partly to mostly cloudy, spotty shower possible, high in the upper 50sHudson Valley: Partly to mostly cloudy, high near 60…