NEW MEXICO — Severe storms are likely to develop overnight across New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle, bringing a nighttime chance of a strong EF-2 or stronger tornado along with damaging winds. A broken line of thunderstorms is expected to form across eastern Arizona and into central New Mexico by sunset. The greatest concern will build late in the evening and continue into the early morning hours of Monday.
Best Chance of a Strong Tornado Between Albuquerque and Amarillo
The highest threat for a strong tornado is focused east of Albuquerque and west of Amarillo. This zone covers eastern New Mexico, including Tucumcari and Roswell, and extends north toward Dalhart in the Texas Panhandle.
A surge of low-level moisture combined with a highly sheared environment will set the stage for this conditional threat. If storms can take advantage of these ingredients overnight, a strong tornado or damaging winds greater than 75 mph will be possible.
Level 2 Risk Covers Central New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle
A Level 2 out of 5 risk for severe weather covers much of central and eastern New Mexico, including Santa Fe, Los Lunas, Tucumcari, and Roswell. The elevated risk area also stretches into the Texas Panhandle near Dalhart, Amarillo, and Perryton.
Storms in this zone could produce damaging winds and tornadoes, especially after dark. Residents across these areas should stay alert to warnings throughout the night and into early Monday morning.
Level 1 Risk Extends From Arizona to Kansas and West Texas
A broader Level 1 out of 5 risk covers a large area stretching from southern and eastern Arizona, including Phoenix, Tucson, Safford, and St. Johns. The low-risk zone continues through southern New Mexico near Truth or Consequences and Carlsbad…