NORTH CAROLINA — While most forecast models continue to favor a southern track for the Monday storm system, a consistent cluster of ensemble members still suggests the potential for a stronger Mid-Atlantic storm, particularly if interaction with the northern stream materializes.
Latest ensemble guidance highlights an area of developing low pressure offshore near the Virginia and North Carolina coastline, with multiple weak surface lows clustered east of the Delmarva and Outer Banks region. Although the dominant trend keeps the storm suppressed to the south, the persistent signal for amplification cannot be ignored.
Why Some Ensemble Members Show a Stronger Storm
Ensemble forecasting exists specifically to evaluate uncertainty, and throughout the week, a subset of solutions has consistently depicted a more robust system. These stronger outcomes stem from potential interaction between a southern shortwave ejecting out of the Southwest and energy embedded in the northern stream.
If the phasing between these two streams increases, surface pressures could deepen more rapidly near the Virginia Capes, eastern North Carolina, and offshore of Maryland, allowing precipitation shields to expand farther north…