SACRAMENTO, Calif. — One of the main drivers of rain and snow in California is El Niño/La Niña. Whether or not the equatorial Pacific Ocean is warmer or cooler than average plays a big role in the type of winter weather we can expect.
Currently, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are cooler than average, indicative of a La Niña pattern, and this has been the case for much of the wintertime. While we typically think of La Niña meaning a drier-than-average winter, that’s not always the case. In fact, during weak La Niña patterns, we usually end up with a near-average precipitation winter and the last two drought-busting winters both occurred during a weak La Niña.
So far, it looks like we may be shaping up to have a near to slightly below average winter across Northern California. Despite a historically dry January, Sacramento is back within an inch of average rainfall thanks to more than four inches of rain falling since Feb. 1. Snowpack, likewise, has seen a huge jump, up from just 40% of April 1 average statewide to 73% of average following the snowy start to February.
While the rest of this winter will be dictated by a weak La Niña setup, the pattern does look to be changing.
The latest La Niña update from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center shows a weak La Niña continuing through about April. The spaghetti models below detail that weak La Niña has been present since December, with a warming trend expected to occur through the late spring…