NORTH TEXAS — A potentially more active weather pattern is coming into view for the region as the latest Climate Prediction Center outlook signals a favorable setup for increased rain chances between September 13 and September 17. The updated six-to-ten day guidance shows above normal precipitation probabilities spreading across much of the Southern Plains, with North Texas and the broader Dallas-Fort Worth metro area highlighted among the areas most likely to benefit from the shift.
CPC Outlook Highlights Elevated Precipitation Chances
The Climate Prediction Center’s precipitation outlook for the September 13 through 17 window displays probabilities ranging from roughly 33 percent in the eastern Dallas-Fort Worth area up to 50 percent farther west toward communities including Breckenridge, Cisco, and Graham. This west-to-east gradient reflects a pattern where the best chances for above normal rainfall favor the western half of North Texas, though the entire region is included in the above normal precipitation category on the latest guidance.
While temperatures across the same period are still expected to run above normal, the combination of a favorable moisture setup alongside seasonably warm conditions suggests the region could see scattered showers and thunderstorm activity develop even without a dramatic cooldown accompanying the rain chances.
Upper-Level Pattern Points to Increased Storm Potential
The atmospheric setup driving this outlook features a trough positioned near the western United States paired with ridging farther east, a configuration that tends to promote increased moisture transport and the potential for disturbances tracking across the Plains. This kind of pattern can open the door for periodic rounds of showers and thunderstorms as weak disturbances ride along the boundary between the trough and the ridge.
Meteorologists note that while this setup does not guarantee widespread, soaking rainfall across the entire region, it does meaningfully raise the odds compared to a more typical stagnant summer pattern where consistent ridging suppresses shower and thunderstorm development across North Texas and the surrounding Southern Plains.
Extended Dry Stretch Has Left Ground Conditions Severely Impacted
The renewed rain chances come at a critical time for North Texas, where the Dallas-Fort Worth area has gone 53 days without measurable rainfall. That extended dry stretch has left noticeable impacts on the landscape, with many areas across the region reporting large cracks forming in the ground as soil moisture has been depleted over the prolonged period without meaningful precipitation…