FORT WORTH, TX — A significant heavy rain event is underway across North Texas. The latest National Weather Service rainfall graphics show widespread totals of 2 to 4 inches likely for the heart of the region through Thursday evening. The forecast period runs from 7 p.m. Monday, September 28, through 7 p.m. Thursday, October 1, and does not yet include any more rain that may fall on Friday. Some spots could see much more than the official forecast shows, possibly 7 to 10 inches, if storms repeatedly train over the same areas.
Official Forecast Highlights the Heart of North Texas
The official National Weather Service forecast puts the heaviest rain across the Dallas–Fort Worth Metroplex and the counties to the north and west. Denton leads the forecast with about 4.1 inches. Fort Worth and Mineral Wells are both near 3.7 inches, and Bowie and Hamilton are around 3.6 inches.
Dallas, Sherman, Graham, Stephenville, Hillsboro and Brownwood are each forecast to get about 3.1 inches. Farther west, Wichita Falls is near 2.6 inches, Abilene and Cisco about 2.7 inches, and San Angelo and Sonora around 2.8 inches. The heaviest band also reaches southward toward Lampasas at about 2.8 inches and Brady near 2.7 inches.
Totals Drop Off Sharply in East Texas
The forecast shows a clear drop-off in rain totals toward East Texas. Waco is forecast near 2.4 inches, Temple around 2.3 inches, and Greenville about 2.4 inches. Corsicana is near 2.0 inches, while Paris is around 1.9 inches and Canton near 1.7 inches.
Farther east and southeast, amounts drop quickly. Groesbeck is near 1.5 inches, Mount Pleasant about 1.3 inches, and Hearne near 1.2 inches. Palestine and Centerville are forecast to get less than an inch. Longview, Lufkin, Livingston and Center may see only a few tenths of an inch.
Low-End Scenario Still Brings Meaningful Rain
The NWS low-end scenario, which represents the floor of what could happen, shows widespread totals of 0.5 to 2 inches across North Texas. There is a 90 percent chance that actual totals end up higher than this scenario. It’s a useful baseline, but the region will very likely see much more rain than the low-end numbers suggest…