DALLAS, TEXAS — A new long-range weather outlook is signaling a growing severe weather threat across the central United States, with Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas highlighted as a potential corridor for increased supercell development between February 22 and March 1, 2026. Forecast guidance shows a notable uptick in the Supercell Composite Parameter (SCP) across parts of the southern and central Plains.
Strongest Supercell Signals Focused Over Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas
The highest values on the latest outlook are concentrated across:
- North-central Texas
- Central and eastern Oklahoma
- Southern and central Kansas
Color gradients on the model show elevated supercell composite values reaching into the upper 20s on the scale, with the most intense core centered roughly along the Red River region and extending northward toward Wichita, Kansas.
These parameters suggest atmospheric ingredients that could support organized severe thunderstorms, including potential supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes if shorter-range forecasts align.
The red-circled region in the guidance outlines a swath from around the Dallas–Fort Worth area northward into Oklahoma City and toward south-central Kansas, marking the primary zone of concern during this late-February period.
Gulf Moisture and Plains Instability Driving the Pattern
The broader map shows lower but still notable signals stretching eastward toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the Deep South, though the highest concentration remains across the Plains…