A dramatic snowfall map from the European model showing 7 to 19 inches north of DC made the rounds this week, but forecasters say it is far from a lock. NBC4’s Doug Kammerer recently shared a run of the European model snowfall output for Sunday, calling the setup “a tough one.” Earlier runs showed mostly rain, and guidance has continued to shift north and south with each update.
He pointed out the key issue… there is no strong cold air source in place. Temperatures would be marginal, meaning small shifts in the storm track could mean the difference between a cold rain and plowable snow. In one model run, Fredericksburg shows little to no snow while Frederick sees mostly snow. That sharp gradient highlights how sensitive the setup is.
Kammerer noted the back and forth will likely continue for several more days and said he will not issue an official snow map, if one is even needed, until Friday. Based on what we see now, the map shared by Kammerer is not a likely scenario…