ATLANTA, Ga. (Atlanta News First) — The Pacific Ocean is warming up in a big way, and it’s about to shake up weather across the entire country, especially here in north Georgia.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting the strongest El Niño ever on record for the 2026-27 winter season, giving us high confidence that this winter will be a memorable one.
The setup
El Niño occurs when warm water in the Pacific Ocean shifts the jet stream — essentially the river of air that steers weather systems across North America.
Meanwhile, a “super” El Niño happens when the water warms more than 4 degrees Fahrenheit, which amplifies effects dramatically. We are already in a strong El Niño as we head into fall, and scientists predict it will intensify into the strongest on record by this winter.
The last three super El Niño winters occurred in 2015-2016, 1982-83 and 1997-98. By analyzing temperature and precipitation patterns from those years, we can get a pretty good preview of what to expect this year.
The good news: A nice fall
Fall (September-November): The entire country is likely to experience below-average temperatures. This doesn’t mean snow — it means crisp, cool weather across the board. For us here in Georgia, this is a good thing! It means we will likely get a slightly longer fall, with temperatures cooling in late-September and staying pleasant into November.
This winter: Colder and wetter across the South
Winter (December-February): The story gets more interesting in winter. The Great Lakes region (think Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois) will likely see a mild winter. Meanwhile, the Southwest stays cooler than normal, and California will be very rainy. Here’s the kicker: The Southeast will be significantly wetter than average, with precipitation well above normal.
North Georgia’s “battleground” winter
Here’s where it gets really important for those of us in North Georgia. Our region sits in what meteorologists call a “battleground area” during strong El Niño winters.
This is where the subtropical jet stream — a river of fast-moving air that typically stays down in the tropics — gets pushed northward and stalls right over the Southeast. When this happens, it creates a collision zone. Warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico crashes into cold Arctic air, and the result is a recipe for wild, unpredictable weather.
Based on historical patterns, north Georgia should prepare for:…