DURANGO, Colo. — A big storm system from Sunday through Tuesday looks likely to hit western and southwestern Colorado hard. The San Juan Mountains could see 1 to 3 inches of liquid precipitation, with 1 to 2 feet or more of snow. More flooding is possible near Durango and Pagosa Springs. For Denver, Boulder, and the Front Range, the setup looks less promising, with mostly cold rain and low snow chances.
Models Disagree on the Storm Track
Forecast models are still showing very different solutions for how this storm develops. The European model shows a weaker low tracking farther west and southwest. That would focus the heaviest rain and snow on southwest Colorado, with much less for the northern Front Range and mountains.
The GFS and Canadian models show more energy in the northern branch of the jet stream. In those runs, a strong low forms and moves into east-central Colorado by Monday. That is a completely different track than the European model shows.
San Juans Look Like a Sure Bet
With broad southwest flow and deep moisture, southwest Colorado looks almost guaranteed to get a soaking. Some rain and snow will arrive from Friday night through Saturday afternoon. The main event is expected to move in by about 5 a.m. Sunday.
The NWS Blend of Models shows about 2 inches of liquid near Durango, with heavy totals near Purgatory and Wolf Creek Pass. Snow levels may stay above 10,000 feet early Sunday before dropping to about 9,000 feet by Monday. Higher peaks could pick up 1 to 2 feet of snow.
Flooding Risk Returns Near Durango
Southwest Colorado has already dealt with major flooding this month, especially near Pagosa Springs. Another 1 to 3 inches of rain could cause more flooding in spots. Areas from Durango to Pagosa Springs and lower Wolf Creek Pass face the greatest risk…