ERCOT is bracing for a scorcher of a summer on the Texas grid, warning that record-breaking electricity demand could hit the low-90-gigawatt range as a wave of new data centers and high heat collide. Even so, the grid operator says recent power-plant additions and new rules for dialing back big users mean widespread rolling blackouts are not expected.
What The Models Say About Summer Stress
In its latest monthly risk modeling, ERCOT finds that the hour with the highest risk of tight reserves is around 9 p.m., when solar output fades but Texans are still running air conditioning. The chance of an Energy Emergency Alert in June is tiny, about 0.09 percent, according to ERCOT. That probabilistic outlook reflects better expected capacity on the system and lower forecasted thermal power plant outages.
At the same time, ERCOT has been warning that summer demand could climb into the low-90-gigawatt range, which would blow past the 85.5 gigawatt record set in 2023, as reported by the Houston Chronicle.
Why ERCOT Says The Grid Can Handle It
“What we have published at this point is still showing fairly adequate capacity and a low likelihood of emergency conditions going into the June and July months,” ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas told the board, according to the Houston Chronicle.
Officials pointed to roughly 11 gigawatts of new capacity that has come online since last summer, mainly large solar farms and battery storage projects. Those additions are reshaping when the system is most exposed to stress, shifting more of the risk into the evening “ramp-down” period when the sun sets, solar production drops, and other resources have to pick up the slack quickly…