Greater San Marcos Partnership President Mike Kamerlander.
Photo by Lance Winter
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Greater San Marcos Partnership President Mike Kamerlander – moderator; Steve Welton JE Dunn; John Colglazier, Jr. Partners Real Estate and Brooks Willig, La Tierra.
Photo by Lance Winter
The Texas economy is expected to continue its expansion, even in the face of market volatility, according to retired Assistant Vice-President & Senior Economist of the Federal Reserve, Keith Phillips.
“The most reliable signal of recession has been a yield curve inversion – by this measure probability of recession remains very high, Phillips told a packed house at the 2024 Economic Outlook, hosted by the Greater San Marcos Partnership.
Phillips said an argument can be made that this time is different due to the pandemic, but the same dispute has been made in the past.
“The Fed believes that a soft landing will occur which means that rates will remain higher for longer – slowing lending and causing faster deterioration in household credit conditions,” Phillips said. “COVID savings by households have shrunk and credit card delinquencies are rising. While holiday spending was strong, diminished household savings, slowing labor demand and resumption of student loan payments will likely soften consumer spending in the months ahead.”