AUSTIN (KXAN) — As rounds of storms and the threat for flash flooding continue on and off this week, it could be that the health of our lakes and our water supply for the summer rests on how much rain falls over the next few days.
Lake Travis and Lake Buchanan have seen modest rises over the last few weeks. Lake Travis is up roughly 1.5 feet in the last month, and Lake Buchanan is up a little over three feet in the last month (as of Monday evening’s lake levels).
Typically, spring rain continues into at least the first half of June before generally tapering off and setting us up for our second driest month of the year we call July. August isn’t usually that wet either, but not one of our driest months.
This is why the rain and storms this week could be pivotal, as it could be the wettest period we see in several weeks or even months.
What it takes to fill the lakes
Heavy rain alone does not fill our lakes. You need rain to first saturate the soil before it runs off into the streams, creeks, and rivers that feed Lake Travis and Lake Buchanan. A wetter-than-normal May has helped moisten our soil, even if it’s not quite saturated yet.
This is setting us up for more runoff into the lakes as long as the rain falls in the “right places” this week.
For that, you need rain to fall into the water basins that feed Lake Travis and Lake Buchanan.
What will happen to lake levels in the coming months?
LCRA releases its lake level projections under various scenarios at the beginning of each month. These account for what has happened to the lakes during the prior months to create a starting point for what could happen next.
These various scenarios are separated into percentiles, with the “Median Conditions” (50th percentile) representing local weather conditions where half of the years have been wetter and half of the years have been drier…