A tropical disturbance in the southern Gulf of Mexico is producing an increasingly active cluster of showers and thunderstorms, wrapped around a weak center of low atmospheric pressure. The system has started to become better organized and it moves northwest, and it could continue to strengthen as it passes over the warm waters of the western Gulf.
The National Hurricane Center is tracking the disturbance, temporarily labeled as “Invest 98L.” As of the hurricane center’s 1 p.m. update, the tropical disturbance now has a 40% chance of developing into at least a tropical depression, up from just 20% earlier Thursday morning. If it reaches tropical storm strength with wind speeds of at least 40 mph, it would be named “Tropical Storm Fernand”.
Its relatively low odds of development come down to one key factor: time. Forecast models show it has only about 24 to 30 hours over water before moving inland, cutting off any chance for further strengthening. Even if the system doesn’t become a full-fledged tropical storm, it will likely bring thunderstorms, high surf, and dangerous rip currents to the Texas coast…