Severe storms, flooding risk aims at Texas by end of the week. Here’s a breakdown.

It’s been an extremely dry fall across Texas, especially in our part of the state. Since Sept. 8, San Antonio has recorded a minuscule 0.01 inch of rainfall, while Austin has gone 45 consecutive days without any measurable rainfall, the city’s second-longest dry streak in the past 10 years.

Things haven’t been much better in East Texas or North Texas. The Dallas-Fort Worth area has recorded 0.66 inch of rain over the past 45 days, more than four inches below the climate-normal. Meanwhile, Houston is more than seven inches below average over the same period.

Long story short: We need more rain. Thankfully, rain chances are about to jump higher than they’ve been in more than six weeks. It’s not all good news, though. This storm system also could bring isolated hail, damaging winds and flooding to many parts of the state. Here’s a breakdown of what to expect.

Thursday night

First of all, besides a few isolated showers along the coast, we don’t really have any chance of rain throughout Texas on Wednesday. Much of Thursday will be dry, too, but a few thunderstorms will start to move into West Texas by Thursday night along with a low pressure system over the desert Southwest starts its approach.

By Thursday night, the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center has a portion of West Texas, from Midland-Odessa, north to Lubbock and Amarillo, under a level 1 of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms. That means that while most storms will stay under severe weather thresholds, a few isolated storms could produce hail an inch to 1.5-inches in diameter, along with 60-70 mph wind gusts…

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