Across the United States, fast-growing cities are on track to become unaffordable for the very residents who built them. By 2027, Realtor.com projections show home prices in several metros consuming far more than the traditional 30% of household income, pushing ownership out of reach for typical local earners. I look at nine cities where that squeeze is most severe and where realtors warn that locals could be priced out within just a few years.
1) Boise, Idaho – Projected 35% home price increase to $612,000 by 2027 will price out locals earning $68,000 median income, per Realtor.com warning.
Boise, Idaho is one of the clearest examples of a market where projected price growth collides directly with modest local incomes. According to affordability projections, the median home price in Boise is expected to reach $612,000 by 2027, up 35% from $454,000 in 2023. At the same time, the city’s median household income is listed at $68,000, a level that cannot realistically keep pace with that kind of appreciation. Analysts calculate that, on this trajectory, typical mortgage payments would consume well over 50% of that median income, far beyond standard lending guidelines and the comfort zone for most households.
That imbalance is why realtors are already warning that Boise risks “pricing out locals” entirely by 2027, as outside buyers with higher incomes or cash offers dominate the market. For long-time residents, the stakes are stark: renters may find that saving for a down payment becomes impossible, while existing owners could feel locked in because trading up within the city would require taking on far more debt. The projected squeeze also threatens local employers, who may struggle to attract workers if housing costs bear little relationship to local wages, and it raises the prospect of longer commutes as people move farther from the city center in search of something they can afford.
2) Austin, Texas – 32% price surge to $580,000 by 2027 outpaces $72,000 median income, signaling affordability collapse as warned by Realtor.com.
Austin, Texas has already become a national symbol of rapid housing inflation, and the projections suggest that pressure is far from over. The same affordability analysis warns that home prices in Austin are expected to rise 32% to $580,000 by 2027, up from $439,000 in 2023. Local median household income, at $72,000, is not projected to grow at anything like that pace, which means the typical buyer will be forced to stretch further each year just to compete. Realtors in the report explicitly caution that this rapid escalation could “price out locals,” especially first-time buyers who do not have equity from a previous sale.
As prices detach from incomes, Austin’s identity as a relatively accessible tech and creative hub comes under strain. Service workers, teachers, and public employees earning close to the $72,000 median may find that even smaller starter homes are out of reach, pushing them into distant suburbs or out of the metro entirely. That shift can reshape neighborhoods, as long-time residents sell to higher-income newcomers and local businesses face rising commercial rents tied to the same land values. The projected affordability collapse also raises policy questions about zoning, infrastructure, and whether the city can maintain its growth without sacrificing the stability of its existing communities.
3) Denver, Colorado – 30% jump to $620,000 by 2027 exceeds $79,000 median earnings, creating a local displacement risk highlighted in Realtor.com data.
Denver, Colorado is another fast-growing metro where projected home values are set to outstrip what local incomes can reasonably support. The housing affordability data show a projected 30% price jump, with the median home expected to reach $620,000 by 2027, up from $477,000 in 2023. Median household income in Denver is listed at $79,000, which sounds relatively high on paper but becomes far less comfortable when stacked against a six-figure down payment and rising monthly mortgage costs. Analysts flag Denver as one of the key cities where this mismatch could “price out locals” within a few years if trends continue…