Across the country, a growing body of analysis points to a small but important group of suburbs where home values are likely to fall, not just flatten. With Home prices poised to dip in 22 U.S. cities next year and early data showing some markets already turning negative, buyers and owners in these communities face a very different reality from the boom years. I look at six suburbs where the numbers suggest a real risk that prices could crash by next year, and what that means for local households.
1) Round Rock, TX
Round Rock, a fast-growing suburb north of Austin, sits squarely in the cluster of Sun Belt markets where Home prices are now projected to slip. A detailed analysis of national trends finds that Home prices are poised to dip in 22 U.S. cities next year, with particular vulnerability in overbuilt areas of Texas and other parts of Florida and the West. Separate commentary that cites the same analysis notes that Home prices are expected to DROP next year, mostly in Florida and the West, reinforcing how heavily the correction is concentrated in these high-growth regions. For Round Rock, which rode Austin’s tech boom and a wave of remote workers, that means the rapid construction of subdivisions and build-to-rent communities is now colliding with buyers squeezed by high mortgage rates.
In practical terms, I see three main risks for Round Rock owners. First, if demand continues to cool while inventory rises, sellers may need to cut list prices or offer concessions just to attract offers, especially on newer tract homes that compete directly with builder discounts. Second, anyone who bought with a low down payment near the peak could find themselves close to or even below their loan balance if values slip a few percentage points. Finally, investors who counted on endless rent growth may decide to exit, adding more supply. The broader MARKET UPDATE that Home prices are poised to dip in 22 U.S. cities next year suggests Round Rock is not an isolated case but part of a regional reset that could feel like a crash to recent buyers.
2) Meridian, ID
Meridian, a key suburb in the Boise metro, is flashing some of the clearest early warning signs that a price crash may already be underway. Reporting on national figures shows that US home prices have started to turn negative, with analysts describing it as a signal that the real estate market is cracking in several overheated metros. In that coverage, US home prices turning negative are framed as the first stage of a broader correction, and Boise’s rapid pandemic-era surge is frequently cited as a textbook case of overvaluation. Meridian absorbed much of that spillover demand, with buyers bidding aggressively on new construction and existing homes alike, often far above pre-2020 norms.
Now, as year-over-year price growth in parts of the Boise area slips below zero, Meridian owners face a very different landscape. Negative annual appreciation means some recent buyers are already sitting on paper losses, and if rates stay elevated, move-up demand could stall, trapping households in place. Investors who bought single-family rentals at compressed yields may decide the math no longer works and list properties, adding to supply just as local demand cools. For would-be buyers, a market that is “cracking” can be both an opportunity and a risk: waiting could bring better prices, but sharp drops can also make financing harder if appraisals lag. I see Meridian as a bellwether for how quickly pandemic boomtowns can swing from frenzy to fragility.
3) Brandon, FL
Brandon, a major suburb east of Tampa, shows up in long-range forecasts as one of the Florida communities most exposed to multi-year price pressure. A five-year outlook on the national housing market notes that some metros, particularly in fast-growing Sun Belt regions, are likely to see weaker performance as the market normalizes. In that context, housing market predictions through 2029 highlight that certain areas could face sustained softness rather than a quick rebound. Brandon fits that profile: years of aggressive building, investor purchases of single-family homes, and heavy reliance on in-migration have left the local market sensitive to any slowdown in population flows or employment growth…