DALLAS, TEXAS — Early signs are pointing toward a potential severe weather setup on Saturday, February 14, across central and east Texas, particularly along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor. Forecast guidance shows an approaching upper-air disturbance carving a trough into the southern United States, while warm, humid air surges north from the Gulf of Mexico.
This developing pattern could support thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, with at least a low-end risk for an isolated brief tornado. Portions of Louisiana and possibly southwest Arkansas may also come into play depending on how the system evolves.
Jet Stream Trough Setting the Stage
Upper-level analysis indicates a pronounced dip in the jet stream — commonly referred to as a trough — moving into west Texas and the southern Plains. This feature enhances lift and strengthens winds aloft, creating favorable conditions for organized storm development.
As the trough approaches, surface low pressure is expected to deepen across Texas. Ahead of it, southerly winds will draw humid Gulf air northward into central and eastern parts of the state…