BAKERSFIELD, Calif. (KBAK/KBFX) — A dynamic winter-like storm system, that began organizing over British Columbia (Canada), is currently diving south-southwest, along and just off the Oregon and Northern California coast early Monday morning. This is what we call “retrograding,” as this area of low pressure, rather than moving southeast, is actually moving slightly west of south, and strengthening as it does so.
Winds will make their presence felt again across the desert, the mountains and the Kern River Valley during the day on Monday and clouds should start to develop during the afternoon and into the evening across Kern County.
The first opportunity of rain could check into some of our mountains (around Frazier Park) during the late afternoon and evening hours, with the chances of rainfall gradually increasing during the evening and especially overnight from the South Valley to the Kern River Valley and working its way into the desert too.
As the “cold-core” of the system moves right across central California on Tuesday afternoon, the most unstable air of the event will help change the character of the precipitation from steady to showery. This is also when the greatest potential for thunderstorms will exist and the highest likelihood of heavy-at-times rainfall rates. A flood watch is up for the Kern River Valley for the possibility of heavy rainfall rates on Tuesday.
A winter storm warning is up for the Sierra all the way down to 6,000 feet for significant snowfall accumulations as the colder air works in. The highest peaks of Kern County stand a decent chance at the first wintry coating of the season, especially when snow levels will drop to between 6,500 to 7,000 feet by Tuesday afternoon/evening.
How much rain will we receive? Well, rainfall estimates are always tricky around here because the unique topography, along with the atmospheric wind patterns, can lead to highly variable amounts. One of the forecast challenges is the notorious South Valley “rain-shadow” that can really impede totals locally. However, nearly all of the computer models suggest that this system could bring some pretty respectable rainfall totals. So, while we won’t know until after the fact, there is a good chance (based on the available data) that the Bakersfield area could get upwards of half an inch of rain, and possibly even more. Some models nearly double this amount and they’re not outliers from the others either…