Coming off of a CHILLY weekend, the forecast doesn’t look much warmer as we start a new week across the Valley. This extremely persistent Tule fog/clouds situation has significantly affected Valley temperatures. Bakersfield hasn’t climbed up to 50 since last Thursday!
Remarkably, Sunday afternoon highs ranged from 47 in the South Valley to 82 in the San Fernando Valley – a whopping 35-degree temperature difference!!
The upper-level ridge continues to be the dominant player across our region. Its expanding influence is leading to warmer air at the mid-altitude level, which in turn should drive up local readings above the South Valley inversion. The Kern River Valley, Antelope and Indian Wells Valley, and the mountains are all expected to get warmer in the days ahead, with low, mid, and even upper 70s in the forecast toward the mid/latter part of this new week.
Ironically, as the air warms up within most of the atmosphere, the temperature inversion could actually strengthen. If that happens, the chilly and moist air could get trapped in the lowest several hundred feet at and above the Valley floor. This could be the formula for even more dense fog and possibly persistent low cloudiness that could have difficulty clearing. A cloudy day in this scenario could see (and indeed has seen) afternoon highs back in the 40s. If it clears, then fog potential goes up significantly that night and the next morning.
The pattern within the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere continues to look “locked-in” for the foreseeable future, with high-pressure ridging just not giving way for the time being across the northeast Pacific Ocean adjacent to California. As a result, the storm track rides up and over southcentral California for continued very quiet weather and very persistent Tule fog/low clouds. We may have to wait until LATE DECEMBER for the next “chance of change” as far as that goes…