BALTIMORE — A new long-range call puts December 5 as the top pick for Baltimore’s first measurable snow of the season. Measurable snow means at least 0.1 inch recorded at BWI Airport. Backup dates of December 12 and December 19 are also on the list. This is not a full winter outlook, but a targeted prediction for the first snow at BWI.
Three Target Dates in December
The first choice is December 5, with a one-day buffer covering December 4 to 6. That date falls on a Saturday, lining up with a recent pattern of weekend storms. If that window misses, the next target is December 12, with a buffer of December 11 to 13.
The third choice is December 19, with a window of December 18 to 20. All three dates fall on Saturdays in December. The forecast applies only to BWI Airport, not the entire region. Inland and northern areas often see their first snow earlier, while places farther south and east usually wait longer.
Weekend Storm Pattern Plays a Role
The region has just gone through five straight weekends with rain on Sunday. That repeating rhythm suggests storm systems may keep arriving on weekends heading into winter. The December picks shift the focus slightly earlier, toward the middle of the weekend.
Patterns like this do not always hold for months. Still, weather systems often settle into a cycle during certain seasons. Forecasters sometimes use that kind of rhythm to help time long-range predictions.
Super El Niño Favors a Slower Start
A developing Super El Niño may favor a warmer start to winter, with more action arriving later in the season. Strong El Niño winters often bring an active southern storm track. That can mean more moisture for the East Coast, but not always enough cold air…