UNITED STATES — A potential mid-week winter weather setup is drawing cautious attention across Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Jersey, and parts of the Northeast, but current forecast data strongly suggests that snow expectations remain highly uncertain and far from guaranteed. Ensemble guidance from the ECMWF model highlights why early snow maps can be misleading, showing a wide range of possible outcomes rather than a single reliable scenario.
While snow is possible in some locations between Wednesday and Friday, probabilities for meaningful accumulation remain modest, particularly in major metro areas.
What the ECMWF Snow Probability Data Actually Shows
ECMWF ensemble probability maps focusing on 1 inch of snow or more show limited confidence across most populated areas. For example, Baltimore’s metro area sits in roughly the 30–40 percent range, a level that historically does not support strong confidence in impactful snowfall.
Farther north and west into western Pennsylvania and interior elevations, probabilities increase sharply, with some higher-terrain locations nearing near-certainty thresholds. However, these higher odds drop off quickly when moving toward the I-95 corridor, including Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, and southern New Jersey…