BALTIMORE, MARYLAND — Meteorologists are closely monitoring a potential winter storm that could impact parts of Maryland, Pennsylvania, and the Mid-Atlantic around February 15–16, though confidence remains limited due to the system’s long-range status. Current guidance suggests the storm is unlikely to be a pure snow event, with rain and sleet mixing in, especially closer to the coast.
Even so, the latest ECMWF ensemble data indicates a 30–40% probability that the Baltimore metro area could receive at least 3 inches of snow, a signal strong enough to warrant early attention.
Long-Range Tracking Still In Early Stages
Forecasters stress that this system is still in the early tracking phase, meaning key details such as storm track, temperature profiles, and precipitation type remain highly uncertain. Small shifts in the system’s path or timing could dramatically change snowfall outcomes, particularly across the Interstate 95 corridor.
At this range, ensemble guidance is more useful for identifying risk, not exact totals — and the risk is clearly present for a measurable winter event in parts of the region.
Mixed Precipitation Likely For Many Areas
Based on current temperature profiles, this storm will likely feature mixed precipitation, especially across central and eastern Maryland, including Baltimore and surrounding suburbs. Warmer air aloft raises the potential for rain or sleet, which could limit snowfall accumulation in lower elevations and near the Chesapeake Bay…