Today’s severe threat will be very conditional, meaning slight tweaks in the atmosphere will make the difference between warnings or nothing at all.
The atmosphere will have what’s called a “cap” over Acadiana, which in simple terms means a layer of more stable air that stops storms from rising and developing. This “cap” will become more pronounced later in the afternoon and evening, so it may become harder and harder through the day for any storms to develop across the area. However, severe weather ingredients are there above this cap, so if storms do manage to overcome it, they could go severe, mainly for the threat of damaging winds and hail. One thing that helps storms break through this cap is warmer temperatures, but temperatures will have to be in the upper 70s this afternoon for that to occur, which is possible. It will be a close call. The atmosphere does look slightly more favorable for storm development earlier in the afternoon across central parts of the state. This is where I believe most of the severe threat will be today. We’ll be watching for “trouble-makers” that manage to sprout off and tap into the severe weather ingredients. Hopefully, we stay mostly quiet across Acadiana, so we can enjoy the game! I’m only putting storm coverage at 30-40%.