MISSISSIPPI — A subtle but potentially concerning tornado setup is taking shape across central Mississippi into west-central Alabama Thursday evening, with areas including Jackson, Meridian, Tuscaloosa and Birmingham positioned near a narrow corridor of enhanced storm ingredients.
Forecasters are describing the threat as “sneaky” — not because the environment looks explosive at first glance, but because storm motion relative to the wind profile may compensate for otherwise modest wind shear.
Storm Line Targeting Central Mississippi Into Alabama
High-resolution model reflectivity shows a broken but organized band of thunderstorms extending from:
- Near Greenville, Mississippi
- Through Jackson and Meridian
- Into Tuscaloosa and Birmingham, Alabama
- Eastward toward LaGrange and Peachtree City, Georgia
The strongest simulated cells appear embedded within this west-to-east oriented corridor, particularly near:
- Jackson, MS
- Tuscaloosa, AL
- Birmingham, AL
While widespread discrete supercells are not evident, embedded rotating segments within the line cannot be ruled out.
Moisture In Place Across Mississippi and Alabama
Dew point projections at 2 meters show mid-60s moisture pooling across:
- Jackson (64°F)
- Meridian (64°F)
- Hattiesburg (66°F)
- Montgomery (62°F)
- Columbus, GA (62°F)
Moisture is sufficient to support instability, particularly across central and southern Mississippi into west Alabama.
Instability and 3CAPE Raising Eyebrows
Surface-based CAPE values are moderate across the region, with stronger instability focused along and south of the main storm band.
Of particular note: 3CAPE values exceeding 200 J/kg in localized areas…