Data being crunched by computers and reviewed by meteorologists is suggesting a shift in the expected impact zone of a winter storm due to hit the northeast starting later tonight through tomorrow ahead of Valentine’s Day. Due to the forecast tweaks, the National Weather Service has expanded Winter Storm Watches and Warning. And due to those warnings, New York City has announced that their school buildings will be closed tomorrow, replaced with remote learning instead.
A few things have changed with this forecast update. Not only has the projected storm track shifted a little farther south, but with a stronger mid and upper-level low and a tighter mid and low-level temperature gradient, stronger dynamic forcing along with stronger cold air advection into the system looks to now result in a quicker changeover to snow, and heavier precipitation hanging back in the cold sector of the storm.
Due to these changes, the amount of precipitation that is expected to fall has increased near and just north of the I-95 corridor from central New Jersey north, while the amount of snow expected has increased between I-78 and I-80 north of there. While precipitation amounts are increasing on the south side of this winter storm, they are decreasing on the north side, with the most notable difference in western and central-northern Pennsylvania and Upstate New York; now, the heavier snowfall is forecast to be a bit south and east of there.