Jeff Berardelli is WFLA’s Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist
TAMPA (WFLA) – As Tropical Storm Debby, which strengthened into a hurricane, churned up the coast just west of Tampa Bay, the area was consistently on the wet side of the storm, with bands riding across the same areas over and over again.
As a result, a huge swath of Sarasota and Manatee counties ended up with between 12 and 20 inches of rain, flooding thousands of homes. Many in the area called it a “historic” storm. They are right.
NOAA has a tool on their website in which if you know the location, the amount of rain, and period of time that it fell in, you can determine the statistical reoccurrence of the rainfall event.
In this case, an average of 15-16 inches of rain across these two counties has an approximately a 200 year reoccurrence interval (spots with 18″+ inches of rain had a 1-in-500 year rainfall).
But what does that mean? Well it means that statistically speaking, based on historical data, that heavy a rain event, in that short period of time, should only occur, on average, once every 200 years.