The days leading into Labor Day Weekend promise to be unsettled around the tri-state, with multiple rounds of strong-to-severe storms set to slice through the region from Tuesday to Thursday.
A front will meander over the area and serve as the focal point for storms, the strongest of which could turn severe. The threats will run the gamut from damaging straight-line winds to isolated flash flooding, hail. and even a tornado or two.
Areas west of the Hudson River are most at risk for severe weather. Each day, storms will develop over Western New York and track southeast, eventually moving through the Poconos, Catskills, and into Northern New Jersey and the Hudson Valley before reaching the NYC metro area.
Isolated flash flooding will be possible each day, with the greatest threat coming on Wednesday. Most areas will see manageable rainfall rates, but the strongest cells could generate rainfall at 2 inches per hour or more, which can lead to flash flooding in low-lying or poor-drainage areas.
Overall rain totals over the three days will be less than an inch for most of us. Only isolated locations will get more than that and face potential flooding.
The rain will come in waves this week, so don’t expect all-day washouts. There will be plenty of dry time in between.
The most difficult aspect of the forecast is narrowing down the timing of the waves. The disturbances associated with weather patterns like this week’s are notoriously difficult to pinpoint from a timing perspective, so expect frequent adjustments to the forecast as new information comes in.
The front that will serve as the focus for storms this week stays overhead through Thursday. It will finally sag south as a cold front on Friday, pushing the storm threat to our south, too. For the northeast, that means cooler, drier, and quieter weather beginning Friday and continuing into Labor Day Weekend…