Another coastal storm is lining up to spread fresh snow across New York and New Jersey just as a punishing blast of Arctic air refuses to let go. Forecast models point to a track that favors accumulating snow for at least part of the region, while wind chills remain dangerous and cleanup from the last system is still underway. I see a setup where timing, storm path and lingering cold combine to keep travel, power and basic daily routines under pressure into early next week.
The new system arrives on the heels of a historic event that buried parts of the Tri-State Area and locked in subfreezing temperatures. With the atmosphere still primed by that earlier storm, even a modest shift in the coastal low’s path could mean the difference between a plowable snowfall and a glancing blow of flurries for millions from New York City to inland New Jersey suburbs.
Storm track puts NY and NJ back in the snow crosshairs
Forecasters are focused on a developing coastal low that is expected to ride up the Eastern Seaboard and then hook near the benchmark often used for big winter systems. In one key scenario, the low organizes off the Carolinas and Virginia before tracking past the “40/70” point, a shorthand for 40 degrees north latitude and 70 degrees west longitude that often separates coastal grazes from direct hits. If that path verifies, parts of New York City and Long Island could see at least 3 inches of snow, with heavier bands possible where the storm’s comma head pivots inland.
The same coastal evolution would drag moisture over entrenched Arctic air that has settled across the Northeast, keeping precipitation mainly snow for interior New Jersey and the lower Hudson Valley. Guidance highlighted in By Justin Lewis points to a swath of accumulating snow stretching across the Tri-State Area, with the exact jackpot zone still dependent on subtle wobbles in the low’s center. I read that as a classic high-stakes coastal setup: small track changes will dictate whether the heaviest snow bands focus over the five boroughs, shift toward central New Jersey, or slide just offshore.
Fresh snow on top of a historic hit
The new storm threat comes less than a week after the region’s biggest snowfall in years, a system that delivered a rare benchmark event for the city and its suburbs. Earlier this week, Here is how it was described: New York City and the Tri-State Area were digging out from a massive winter storm that produced the most snow ever recorded in some locations. Another report noted that The NYC area had been expecting 8 to 12 inches and that the storm “certainly delivered,” underscoring how fully the atmosphere has already flexed its winter muscle…