FLORIDA — A highly unusual winter signal is gaining attention across West-Central Florida, where the latest NAM and NOAA National Blend of Models are showing a low-probability but remarkable chance of snowflakes late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, driven by cold air interacting with Gulf moisture.
NAM and NOAA Blend Keep the Snow Signal Alive
Updated Thursday evening guidance shows both the NAM and blended NOAA models in agreement on a narrow window for wintry precipitation developing overnight Saturday into early Sunday as cold air filters south and shallow moisture pushes inland from the Gulf.
While confidence in measurable accumulation remains low, the consistency across models is what has forecasters paying attention. In one localized projection, the NAM even depicts up to one inch of snow near Oldsmar, an outcome that would be extraordinary for the region if it were to verify.
Areas Being Closely Watched Across West-Central Florida
The highest focus remains along the Tampa Bay coastline and adjacent inland areas, including Tampa, Oldsmar, Sarasota, and Cape Coral. Blended guidance suggests minor snow or flurry potential near Tampa around 0.7 inches, with lighter amounts near Sarasota, while areas farther inland and south see rapidly decreasing probabilities.
These values should be viewed cautiously, as even slight temperature or moisture changes could result in no accumulation at all.
Why Snow in Florida Is So Rare
Snowfall in Florida requires an exceptionally rare alignment of Arctic-level cold air, sufficient moisture, and the correct atmospheric depth. In most winter cold outbreaks, Florida is either too dry or too warm aloft for snowflakes to survive to the surface…