Raleigh is waking up clear and mild this morning, sitting at about 52°F at Raleigh‑Durham International Airport, but the calm is on borrowed time. Showers are expected late this afternoon, and forecasters say a much larger, potentially dangerous storm complex is lining up for Monday, March 16, 2026.
Afternoon Showers, Then a Muggy Night
Partly sunny skies this morning are forecast to give way to likely rain showers after 3 p.m., with a high near 73°F. Southeast winds of 5–13 mph are expected, with gusts up to 22 mph and new rainfall amounts of a few tenths of an inch possible. Tonight stays on the muggy side with a low near 64°F.
Once this system moves through, cooler and drier air rushes in. Highs drop to around 48°F on Tuesday, March 17, 2026, with overnight lows dipping into the 20s after the front passes, according to the National Weather Service office in Raleigh.
Moderate Severe Risk Monday
Forecast discussions have bumped Monday up to a Moderate Risk, with the most likely window for widespread severe weather running roughly from 10 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Monday, March 16, 2026. Forecasters say the primary threat is widespread damaging wind gusts, with embedded bowing segments or mesovortices capable of producing corridors of 55–75 mph, and there is also a small chance of an isolated strong tornado, with a couple potentially reaching EF2 strength or higher.
“Residents should act this weekend to implement their severe weather preparedness plans and ensure means to receive severe weather alerts,” the National Weather Service in Raleigh said in its forecast discussion. You can read the full discussion from the National Weather Service…