A storm system will affect the area on Sunday, bringing us some showers at times and maybe even a few thunderstorms as we get into the afternoon and evening hours. We need the rain as moderate drought continues to envelop the area, and a half-inch to even an inch of rain will be possible. While that won’t put an end to the drought by any stretch, it will certainly help.
Showers could impact the area in two waves tomorrow, with a rain-free period in between. The first round of showers looks to lift north across the area during the morning through midday time period along the leading edge of some higher-dewpoint air. Models then depict a break in the rain ahead of a prefrontal squall line that begins to affect the area in the late afternoon (3-5 PM) timeframe, lasting well into the evening. The front itself doesn’t get through until overnight Sunday into early Monday, so shower chances will remain until that passes and low pressure moves out. We should be done with the rain by daybreak, though.
Temperatures will continue to run above normal as we will be in the warm sector of the storm system; lows in the upper 40s will warm to the upper 60s to near 70° in the afternoon despite plenty of cloud cover. If clouds break up a bit and some sunshine gets through, that could push temperatures even higher, and may add to the thunderstorm threat as a result.
Severe weather risk: Minimal for the Tri-County, greater further southwest
The risk for severe weather will run generally quite low across the Tri-County area unless we get into a situation where some breaks in the clouds develop to aid destabilization, which seems unlikely at this point. Climatologically speaking, it is quite tough to get severe weather in the Tri-County area in the month of February given the stabilizing influences of cooler Atlantic waters, and those influences are expected to take the edge off of the evening round of showers and thunderstorms by the time they reach the Charleston area…