KENTUCKY – Louisville, Lexington, Bowling Green and Covington are heading toward winter 2026-27 with a historical statewide snowfall average of 13.89 inches annually, based on weather station averages across Kentucky. While El Niño can influence seasonal temperatures and storm tracks, it does not eliminate snowstorms, dangerous cold or icy travel conditions, including winter weather that can continue through March.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), its October 15, 2026, outlook favors above-normal temperatures across Kentucky during December through February, with probabilities generally around 40%–50%. Precipitation outlooks show equal chances of above-, near- or below-normal totals across much of the state, with wetter conditions favored farther southeast. These outlooks address seasonal temperature and precipitation, not specific snowfall amounts.
What Kentucky’s Snowfall History Actually Shows Kentucky’s 13.89-inch statewide snowfall average masks substantial regional differences…