RALEIGH — A lingering frontal line stretching across the middle of the country is bringing heavy rain and isolated flooding concerns to a broad stretch of the United States Sunday, with the Storm Prediction Center highlighting a Level 2 of 5 severe thunderstorm risk for parts of the Carolinas, where some storms could turn strong.
Excessive Rainfall Outlook Targets Carolinas
The Weather Prediction Center’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook places North Carolina and South Carolina under a slight risk, meaning at least a 15 percent chance of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of any point along the highlighted corridor. This zone stretches from the central Carolinas northeastward toward the coast, reflecting the area where the heaviest, most persistent rainfall is expected through Monday morning.
A broader marginal risk, carrying at least a 5 percent chance of flash-flood-level rainfall, extends across a much wider swath of the middle United States, spanning from Texas and Oklahoma eastward through the Tennessee Valley and into the Southeast and mid-Atlantic regions.
Heavy Rain and Thunderstorms Along the Frontal Boundary
The lingering frontal line is expected to produce isolated pockets of heavy rainfall as it stalls across the middle U.S. Sunday, with thunderstorms developing along and near the boundary. Some of these storms are expected to be strong, particularly across the Carolinas, where the elevated Level 2 severe risk aligns with the corridor of heaviest rainfall potential.
Rain Totals Vary Widely Along the Front
Forecast 24-hour rainfall totals through Monday morning show the heaviest amounts tracking along the stalled frontal boundary, with the potential for locally significant totals in areas where storms repeatedly train over the same locations. Coverage extends broadly from the Southern Plains through the Tennessee Valley and into the Carolinas, though amounts will vary significantly depending on exactly where thunderstorm activity develops and lingers.
Residents across the Carolinas and the broader frontal zone should stay alert for the potential of locally heavy downpours and isolated flooding through Sunday night into Monday…