After a weekend of nice and warm weather, showers and storms look to make a return to the Ohio Valley tonight through the morning on Tuesday, and some strong storms are possible during that time.
In fact, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlined a level 2 out of 5, Slight Risk, for severe storms as we head through the night tonight into the morning on Tuesday.
Unlike the last severe weather day, which was last Tuesday, the primary hazard driving this risk is the threat for scattered damaging wind gusts (>58 mph). Thankfully, the SPC has trimmed the higher chances back to the west, but still some storms could bring strong winds.
The chances of large hail and tornadoes are very low with this event, not zero, but very low, and the storm mode doesn’t look to favor large hail or tornadoes being a widespread hazard.
If there’s one silver-lining, the core of the severe threat is off to our west, over portions of Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, and western Ohio. However, a few storms from the main complex could bring the aforementioned threats to the area.
Taking a look at the StormTracker7 Predictor, we can get a good feel for when storms could start to move through the area.
Starting off this afternoon, a few showers and storms are possible, but they will be scattered, and it’s possible many will not see any rain this afternoon.
As we head towards sunset, the storm complex begins to move south across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, and more widespread rain and a few thunderstorms begin to traverse the area. At this time, the strongest storms look to be moving off to the west.
Around midnight, most of the area is seeing rain moving through with a few embedded thunderstorms, which could feature the damaging wind gusts mentioned earlier. Outside of the storms, a steady moderate to heavy rain is possible.
Fast-forwarding a bit, looks like the rain continues as we head into the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday, with some rumbles of thunder, and the potential for heavy rain, and a few strong storms.
Looks like by the time the morning commute rolls around on Tuesday, most of the heaviest rain and storms will have departed to the south, with a few residual light showers possible during the morning hours.
Looking ahead, after Tuesday, the weather looks to turn drier and quieter, while also staying warm, with temperatures around their normal highs for this time of the year. The next rain chances look to move in this weekend, but it’s too early to tell what impacts they would have to the area.
It’s important to note that with new data coming into the models, storm timing and placement could change, meaning who receives the heaviest rain or severe threats could be tweaked as a result…