INDIANA — A machine-learning tornado guidance tool is highlighting parts of Indiana and Ohio with an elevated tornado probability, including a 10% zone centered near Indianapolis and stretching toward western Ohio.
What the 10% Tornado Probability Actually Means
The latest NadoCast tornado probability map shows a broad yellow-shaded region indicating around a 10% probability of at least one tornado report within 25 miles of a location. This does not mean a 10% chance at a specific home. Instead, it signals that somewhere within that 25-mile radius, there is roughly a 1-in-10 chance of at least one tornado being reported.
The probability shading is clearly outlined on the NadoCast graphic provided by AguaceroWx . The yellow zone represents the highest highlighted probability in this outlook.
5% and Lower-End Risk Areas Surround the Core Zone
Surrounding the 10% area, darker brown shading indicates regions closer to a 5% tornado probability. This includes portions of eastern Indiana and western Ohio, including areas near Dayton.
Farther outward, green shading represents lower-end, more isolated tornado potential ranging between 2% and 3%. These areas are not expected to see widespread activity but could still experience isolated stronger storms if atmospheric conditions align.
Storm Ingredients May Align for Stronger Thunderstorms
Meteorologists emphasize that NadoCast is not an official forecast. It is a machine-learning-based tool designed to identify where ingredients for tornado development could come together…