Dallas could see highs in the mid-70s during the first week of June. Houston may struggle to reach 80. Baton Rouge, which normally bakes under 90-degree heat by this point in the calendar, might feel more like early April. A powerful cold front barreling south behind Memorial Day thunderstorms is set to drag temperatures as much as 20 degrees below seasonal averages across a wide stretch of Texas and Louisiana, delivering one of the most dramatic early-June cool spells the region has seen in years.
The pattern amounts to a one-two punch: first, rounds of heavy rain and severe storms that have already triggered flood watches in southeast Texas, then a sharp cooldown that will settle in by late May and persist into the opening days of June. For farmers mid-harvest, construction crews on outdoor job sites, and energy grid operators accustomed to ramping up summer cooling loads, the timing could hardly be more disruptive.
The Forecast Setup
Two federal forecast centers are driving the outlook. The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-to-10-day temperature outlook, valid May 31 through June 4, 2026, places nearly all of Texas and Louisiana in the below-normal category. That designation is measured against the 1991-to-2020 climate baseline and reflects broad agreement among ensemble model members, not a coin-flip probability. For context, normal highs during this window run around 93 degrees in Dallas, 92 in Houston, and 91 in Baton Rouge. Forecast model guidance suggests actual highs could land in the low-to-mid 70s across north Texas and struggle to break 80 along the Gulf Coast, a gap that puts the 20-degree departure within realistic range for interior locations.
The Weather Prediction Center’s extended forecast discussion, covering May 29 through June 2, ties the cooldown to a deep trough-and-ridge reconfiguration in the jet stream. Once the Memorial Day storm complex clears east, cooler Canadian air will spill south behind the front, replacing the humid subtropical air mass that has dominated the region for weeks. Overnight lows behind the front could dip into the upper 50s and low 60s across the Texas Hill Country and north-central Texas, temperatures that would feel startling after weeks of muggy nights in the upper 70s.
Storms Come First
Before the chill arrives, the region has to get through the rain. The WPC’s short-range forecast discussion identifies heavy rain and thunderstorms continuing across the Southern U.S. immediately after Memorial Day, with eastern Texas and Louisiana singled out for persistent flash-flood risk. The NWS Houston/Galveston forecast office has already documented multiple rounds of storms and issued a Flood Watch for the southeast Texas metro area tied to the holiday weekend setup…