AUSTIN, TEXAS — Moisture from Pacific Hurricane Polo is set to spread heavy rain across Texas next week, according to the latest Euro (ECMWF) accumulated rainfall model covering Sunday, September 27 through next weekend. The model shows Polo’s track crossing the Baja California Peninsula into northern Mexico, then pumping deep tropical moisture north into the Lone Star State, with the heaviest rain likely on Wednesday and Wednesday night, September 30. Rainfall totals near 2 inches show up over central Texas, with a corridor of much heavier totals stretching from New Mexico through the Texas Panhandle and into the southern Plains.
How Polo’s Moisture Reaches Texas
After reaching extreme Category 5 strength in the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Polo is forecast to weaken as it moves north along the Baja California Peninsula early next week. The storm is expected to cross Baja and move into northern Mexico, where it will break down over land.
Even as the storm’s winds fade, its tropical moisture does not disappear. That moisture is expected to be pulled northeast across Texas, where it can combine with other weather systems to produce widespread, heavy rain.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night Bring the Heaviest Rain
Forecasters say the heaviest rain is most likely on Wednesday, September 30 and Wednesday night. This is when Polo’s leftover moisture is expected to surge most strongly into the state.
Tropical moisture can produce very high rainfall rates in a short time, meaning some areas could see several inches fall in just a few hours. That raises the concern for flash flooding, especially in urban areas and low-lying spots.
Central Texas Could See Around 2 Inches
The Euro model shows totals near 2 inches across central Texas, placing cities such as Austin, San Antonio, Waco and the Hill Country in the zone for a solid soaking…