OKLAHOMA CITY — The chance of severe weather across the central and southern United States is increasing for early next week. Both the GFS and European models are honing in on a big weather system moving through from November 2 to 4. All severe hazards are possible, including damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes. The threat would likely begin Monday in western Oklahoma and northwest Texas, then push east.
Storm Is Slowing Down and Digging South
The latest model runs show this large wave of energy slowing down and digging farther south. That could give more time for warm, humid air to return north from the Gulf. It could also allow the two jet streams to phase, or merge together.
When the jet streams combine, storms usually become stronger. That is why forecasters are paying close attention to this system. The overall pattern looks consistent with past fall severe weather events.
Strong Low Over the Southern Plains
The European model shows a strong low-pressure system near the Oklahoma Panhandle around midnight Tuesday, November 3. A cold front stretches south from the low through West Texas near Amarillo and Lubbock. A warm front curves northeast toward Kansas, Missouri, and the Tennessee Valley.
Storms could develop in the warm, unstable air between those fronts. The model shows high instability across Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Louisiana. Strong winds aloft could help storms rotate.
Broad Threat Zone From Texas to Mississippi
The possible severe area covers a wide stretch of the South. It includes Oklahoma City, Ardmore, Wichita Falls, Dallas, Waco, and Austin. It reaches east to Shreveport, Little Rock, Jackson, and New Orleans…