Brief Outlook:
Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Central Plains, bringing threats of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. Check below for further details, timing and much more information.
States and Cities Impacted: Iowa (Des Moines, Cedar Rapids), Missouri (Kansas City, Columbia), Kansas (Topeka).
Detailed Forecast:
An upper-level trough will progress eastward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, bringing significant severe weather potential to the Central Plains. Enhanced wind shear, with values around 40-50 knots in the 0-6 km layer, will support organized storm structures, including supercells capable of producing damaging winds and large hail. This setup is particularly concerning due to the strong wind fields aloft that will help in the development of severe thunderstorms.
At the surface, instability values are expected to reach 2500-3000 J/kg, especially across southern and central Iowa, northern Missouri, and eastern Kansas. The presence of a surface low near the KS/NE border will facilitate the northward advection of rich low-level moisture. The interaction of this moist air with the advancing upper-level trough will create an environment ripe for severe thunderstorm development, particularly during the late afternoon and evening hours.