CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa (KCRG) – Storms are a near certainty tonight, but the Wednesday afternoon chance is much more conditional.
Your First Alert: Rain, storms widespread overnight
Scattered showers are around in eastern Iowa, with some snowflakes still hanging around in northeast Iowa. More showers and storms have developed in Nebraska through Kansas, which are heading to the east-northeast at about 40 to 50 mph.
This batch of showers and storms will move in from the southwest, with the heaviest activity entering the viewing area between around 1:00 a.m. to 3:00 a.m. These will be moving into an environment less favorable for severe storms than where they originated on the Plains. However, there’s still the outside chance of a storm or two containing some hail or gustier winds. The most likely area to see this would be south of Highway 20, with the chance a little higher toward the Iowa-Missouri border.
A good dousing of rainfall is likely with this round, with many areas receiving 0.50″ to 1.00″. Isolated higher totals aren’t ruled out, either, for those that get more than one storm moving through.
Temperatures overnight slip into the low to mid 40s. Rain and some storms persist into portions of the morning commute on Wednesday, though more of a break is possible later in the morning.
Your First Alert: Conditional chance for afternoon scattered severe storms
As this dynamic storm system develops and moves across the region, quickly changing air masses will be moved around by increasingly strong winds at the low- and upper-levels. This will transport a warmer and more humid air mass into portions of eastern Iowa, which could set the stage for new storm development by the afternoon hours.
The latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center puts much of the TV9 viewing area in a Slight Risk for severe storms on Wednesday. A higher Enhanced Risk is off to our east, and the chances for severe weather are increased there.
The window of opportunity will be present between about noon and 4:00 p.m. The chance for robust storms will depend on getting a little bit of clearing behind the morning showers and storms. Several of the computer models that we use to help make our forecasts suggest that this will occur, which would push temperatures into the upper 60s to low 70s in many areas…