North Carolina enters round one of the NCAA Tournament as one of the more popular upset picks of the week, drawn against a deep and talented VCU squad. Unfortunately for Tar Heel fans, the pick is popular for a reason, as the numbers side slightly with the underdogs too.
It is not because VCU is the statistically superior team. It is because there is not enough disparity between these two programs, statistically or stylistically, to point toward a clear advantage in either direction.
Too Close for Comfort
According to EvanMiya, North Carolina ranks 33rd offensively and 31st defensively, while VCU sits at 44th and 48th in those same measures. Per KenPom, the Tar Heels are 32nd offensively and 37th defensively, with VCU right behind at 46th and 60th.
That gap is not enough to make Tar Heel fans comfortable. When there is no clear or dominant advantage, that is precisely where upsets live, and with numbers this close, the higher seed becomes genuinely vulnerable…