UNITED STATES — Confidence continues to increase that a major late-January winter storm will bring meaningful snowfall and disruptive winter weather across parts of the southern and central Plains, with Oklahoma emerging as a growing focal point in the latest model guidance. New ensemble data shows a significant upward trend in snowfall probabilities, including a notable signal for Oklahoma City, where odds for impactful snow totals have risen sharply over the past 24 hours.
Meteorologists monitoring the event say this is a clear model trend shift, not just noise, and it places Oklahoma and surrounding states under closer scrutiny as the storm window approaches.
Ensemble Models Signal a Major Shift Toward Oklahoma
The latest European Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) has trended meaningfully higher on snowfall potential across central and northern Oklahoma, extending into southern Kansas, northern Texas, western Missouri, and northwest Arkansas. One of the most striking data points is that the Oklahoma City metro now carries roughly a 50/50 probability of at least 4 inches of snow, a threshold that would represent a high-impact winter event for the region.
This shift suggests that the storm track and thermal profile are aligning more favorably for snow than earlier forecasts indicated. While not every ensemble member shows a heavy snow outcome, the increasing clustering around higher totals is a signal forecasters take seriously.
Why the Snow Signal Is Strengthening
Several atmospheric factors are coming together to support higher snowfall potential across Oklahoma and nearby states. A strong Arctic high pressure system is expected to anchor cold air across the central United States, allowing sub-freezing temperatures to remain in place as moisture increases from the southwest…