OKLAHOMA CITY, Oklahoma — The severe weather risk across central Oklahoma into northwest Texas has just been upgraded to a Slight Risk — Level 2 out of 5 as confidence increases in storm development along the dryline this afternoon — putting Oklahoma City, Wichita Falls, Enid, Altus, Abilene, Graham, Denison, and the broader Dallas corridor directly in the path of storms capable of producing very large hail and a couple of tornadoes later today.
The upgrade reflects increasing confidence that convective initiation — the triggering of thunderstorms — will occur along the dryline during the late afternoon hours across the central Oklahoma into northwest Texas corridor. Should storms develop in this environment, all hazards are possible with any supercell that fires along the boundary.
Who Is Now Inside the Upgraded Slight Risk Zone
The yellow Slight Risk zone now covers a focused and well-defined corridor running from north to south across the heart of Oklahoma and north Texas:
- Oklahoma: Oklahoma City sits directly in the center of the upgraded Slight Risk zone — the most populated metro area in the entire risk corridor. Enid, Woodward, Altus, and the broader central and western Oklahoma communities are inside the yellow zone
- Texas — North: Wichita Falls, Graham, Denison, and Childress fall within the Slight Risk corridor as the dryline threat extends south into the Texas Panhandle fringe and north Texas communities
- Texas — North Central: Abilene sits at the southern end of the primary Slight Risk zone — meaning the threat corridor extends from central Oklahoma all the way down through north-central Texas
- Broader Marginal Risk — Green zone: Bartlesville, Tulsa, McAlester, Paris, Tyler, Brownwood, San Angelo, Brady, Killeen, Pampa, Liberal, and surrounding communities fall within the outer Marginal Risk zone where storm activity is possible but the most focused threat remains in the yellow corridor
What Storms Will Carry if They Develop
The upgrade makes one thing explicitly clear — if storms can initiate along the dryline this afternoon across central Oklahoma and northwest Texas, the environment will support all severe weather hazards simultaneously:
Very Large Hail — The primary and most likely severe weather outcome today is very large hail. The instability and moisture in place across the Oklahoma City to Wichita Falls corridor is sufficient to support hailstones well above the severe threshold, with very large hail capable of causing significant vehicle damage, roof damage, and crop destruction across any community directly under a storm track…