ROCHESTER, N.Y. – We are still in a Yellow Alert through Sunday evening as we continue to track storms potentially regaining strength south and east of Rochester. Even though a strong line of storms dissipated earlier Sunday evening, as the front pushes through Western New York, it will encounter humid, warm air. This unstable air may cause these storms to become strong, once again. A few storms may produce damaging winds and heavy downpours that will disrupt evening outdoor activities.
Though the overall threat of damaging winds remains low, some localized areas could see pockets of heavy rain and gusty winds developing. The approaching front will give these storms some extra lift, and the heavy rain that has been seen with these storms, may also aid in the development of gusty winds. We will continue to keep you updated on the progression of these storms through Saturday evening. Storms chances then decrease through Saturday overnight. However, it will remain muggy and warm with dew points and air temperatures both in the mid-60s. This will make the air feel fairly saturated and moist, so it may be a good night to keep windows shut and AC running, if able. It will stay a little windy overnight with winds mainly out of the southwest between 10 and 20 mph. Some surface smoke will also move through our region Saturday night and Sunday morning. This surface smoke is expected to stay light and only increase air quality index numbers into the low-end of the moderate range (between 50-60). This surface smoke is expected to move south through Sunday.
Sunday has been trending much drier, so only a 10% chance of rain is in place for the end of the weekend. Expect some passing clouds, ample amounts of sunshine, temperatures in the low-80s, and low humidity. Winds stay mostly out of the west/southwest between 10 and 15 mph. Overnight Sunday, clouds will start to thicken as our next small system takes us into Monday. Overnight low temperatures for Sunday will stay in the mid to upper 60s as moisture continues to move in.
Monday, scattered thunderstorms are likely as a small system passes through the Northeast. We are monitoring the trends in the storm strength on Monday. Currently, the strongest weather seems to target the southwestern portion of the Southern Tier with a small chance for damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall. This region of increased severe weather chances may extend up into the Finger Lakes and southern Monroe County. As more fine-tuned data emerges over the next 24 hours, we will be able to get a better idea on how far north these strong storms will stretch. For now, expect a few thunder showers in the morning on Monday, temperatures climbing near 80 degrees, and another round of storms in the afternoon and evening…