TOLEDO, OH — Significant severe weather is expected across northern Ohio today, with a historic 60-plus percent severe risk issued for parts of the region, a category forecasters say they’ve never had to draw before. This highlights just how serious and widespread today’s event is expected to be.
Rapidly Developing Storm Complex Races Toward Ohio
Forecast models continue to show a rapidly developing storm complex, potentially a derecho, forming over northern Illinois and racing east into western Ohio by mid-afternoon and into the evening. This system has the potential to produce widespread damaging to destructive winds of 60 to 80 mph.
The Severe Risk Analysis, issued for Tuesday, shows the highest 60-plus percent probability zone stretching from near Defiance and Lima through Marion and Mansfield, with a 40 to 60 percent risk extending across Toledo, Bowling Green, Columbus, and Dayton.
Torrential Rain and Tornadoes Also Possible
The system is also expected to produce torrential rainfall, with several inches possible in a short time, and a few tornadoes, especially with any storms that form ahead of the main complex or along its leading edge. Hail up to half-dollar size and 2 to 4 inches of potential flooding round out the threat.
Northeast Ohio Remains an Area of Uncertainty
Northeast Ohio, including Cleveland, Akron, and Youngstown, remains uncertain, with many models keeping the worst of the activity just south, though not all guidance agrees. The red and black zones currently hold the highest likelihood of experiencing widespread severe weather this afternoon and evening.
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings Already Active This Morning
Underscoring how active the atmosphere already is, severe thunderstorm warnings were ongoing as of 6:45 a.m. Residents across northern Ohio are urged to stay weather-aware and be prepared to act quickly as this intense event unfolds…